The Asian Outlook.com

Afghan roadmap needed

by Najam Sethi

Has the supercharged US military-intelligence machine got bogged down in Afghanistan?
Despite the bombs and high-gadgetry homing devices poured over Afghanistan, the “tenacious” Taliban seem unrepentant. Meanwhile, Osama bin Laden has gone underground, literally, but not before threatening to ignite the ground under the feet of the “aggressors”. Americans are therefore bracing for another terrorist attack.

Critics argue that the American carrot-stick strategy of trying to bomb and bribe the Taliban
has failed to bear fruit. Further evidence of failure relates to the CIA’s botched attempt to
stir rebellion against the Taliban via commander Abdul Haq who was armed only with satchels full of greenbacks before he was betrayed, captured and executed. It is therefore concluded that this war or campaign is going to be a long and nasty one, with some people apprehensive about a right-wing military coup against General Pervez Musharraf. Leading this pack is the irrepressible American journalist Seymour Hersh who says that special American troops are rehearsing how to “take out” Pakistan’s nuclear programme should
General Pervez Musharraf be ousted from power.

Like many others, General Musharraf had hoped that the American military campaign would be short, swift and sharp, leading to the installation of a friendly broad based government in Kabul before public opinion turned irrevocably hostile in Pakistan. But this hasn’t happened. In fact, local religious parties have swelled their ranks and are flexing for a showdown with the government, with a few actually trying to subvert the army. This has prompted General Musharraf

to sweep the decks and bring moderate and pragmatic army officers into positions of
responsibility in place of the more ideological or politically ambitious ones who originally
installed him in power. The prospect of a longer than anticipated war with rising “collateral
damage” (what a callous phrase!) and an attendant popular backlash in the country has also fueled speculation that he might seek to mend fences with certain politicians in the national interest of Pakistan.

But General Musharraf is reasonably sanguine that he has taken the right decision and the stormwill pass. He is hoping for positive results in Afghanistan even as he digs in for a longer haul Is his guarded optimism justified?

As everyone knows, two salient facts stand out about the American campaign against OBL,
Al Qaeda and the Taliban so far. First, the Americans have said from Day-One that this is the beginning of a multi-faceted and prolonged war against Al-Qaeda and its ilk. So if
there are any qualms about the lack of progress until now, people should be patient.
Second, the Americans have merely tried to “soften” up the Taliban rather than seriously finishing them off. They are concentrating on knocking out the Taliban’s logistical support and heavy weapons instead of indiscriminately carpet-bombing their troop concentrations.
There are two reasons for this: the Taliban’s heavy armour and logistical bases must be knocked out before the Americans can establish a couple of secure bridgeheads for “boots on ground” and intelligence operations; and the NA has to be kept at arms length from Kabul until a broad based government acceptable to Pakistan and the rest of the regional players has been cobbled and installed in the capital. What are the prospects of that happening soon?

Pro-Taliban commentators say the Taliban will never surrender to the Americans. But might they not switch in sufficient numbers if the conditions were right? General Musharraf’s rather coy remark recently of impending switches and defections among the Taliban should not be ignored. Perhaps the hiatus in the war provided by Ramadan will be a cover for achieving this objective. Voices in the American establishment are already saying that Washington
may have missed the import of the Taliban’s early statements suggesting that they would have no serious objections if the Americans could “take out” their honourable guest without direct reference to them.

A couple of days ago some American soldiers and advisers were attached to contingents
of the NA facing Mazhar i Sharif. This significant development suggests that further pressure will be brought to bear on the Taliban’s front lines by a targeted dose of carpet-bombing while propelling the NA’s ragtag army into effective military action. Equally critically, the presence of the Americans is meant to make sure that the NA’s troops do not commit atrocities after they capture the city. The same sort of pressure on the Taliban and
restraint on the NA may be evident along the Kabul front in weeks to come. In fact, the Americans may be preparing the ground to hold the NA in check while readying a UN sponsored military force to occupy Kabul as soon as possible.

Fortunately, civilian casualties in Afghanistan are still much less than originally anticipated. But these will surely mount as the war is extended. Islamic passions are bound to be further inflamed. That is why the Americans and Pakistanis must extract maximum mileage from the onset of Ramadan. The sooner the political essence and organisational structure
of a new government in Kabul is agreed upon between the contending powers, a roadmap, as it were, the quicker the Taliban can be swept aside and the bombing brought to an end.





		Afghan roadmap needed by Najam Sethi Has the supercharged US military-intelligence machine got bogged down in Afghanistan? Despite the bombs and high-gadgetry homing devices poured over Afghanistan, the “tenacious” Taliban seem unrepentant. Meanwhile, Osama bin Laden has gone underground, literally, but not before threatening to ignite the ground under the feet of the “aggressors”. Americans are therefore bracing for another terrorist attack. Critics argue that the American carrot-stick strategy of trying to bomb and bribe the Taliban has failed to bear fruit. Further evidence of failure relates to the CIA’s botched attempt to stir rebellion against the Taliban via commander Abdul Haq who was armed only with satchels full of greenbacks before he was betrayed, captured and executed. It is therefore concluded that this war or campaign is going to be a long and nasty one, with some people apprehensive about a right-wing military coup against General Pervez Musharraf. Leading this pack is the irrepressible American journalist Seymour Hersh who says that special American troops are rehearsing how to “take out” Pakistan’s nuclear programme should General Pervez Musharraf be ousted from power. Like many others, General Musharraf had hoped that the American military campaign would be short, swift and sharp, leading to the installation of a friendly broad based government in Kabul before public opinion turned irrevocably hostile in Pakistan. But this hasn’t happened. In fact, local religious parties have swelled their ranks and are flexing for a showdown with the government, with a few actually trying to subvert the army. This has prompted General Musharraf to sweep the decks and bring moderate and pragmatic army officers into positions of responsibility in place of the more ideological or politically ambitious ones who originally installed him in power. The prospect of a longer than anticipated war with rising “collateral damage” (what a callous phrase!) and an attendant popular backlash in the country has also fueled speculation that he might seek to mend fences with certain politicians in the national interest of Pakistan. But General Musharraf is reasonably sanguine that he has taken the right decision and the stormwill pass. He is hoping for positive results in Afghanistan even as he digs in for a longer haul Is his guarded optimism justified? As everyone knows, two salient facts stand out about the American campaign against OBL, Al Qaeda and the Taliban so far. First, the Americans have said from Day-One that this is the beginning of a multi-faceted and prolonged war against Al-Qaeda and its ilk. So if there are any qualms about the lack of progress until now, people should be patient. Second, the Americans have merely tried to “soften” up the Taliban rather than seriously finishing them off. They are concentrating on knocking out the Taliban’s logistical support and heavy weapons instead of indiscriminately carpet-bombing their troop concentrations. There are two reasons for this: the Taliban’s heavy armour and logistical bases must be knocked out before the Americans can establish a couple of secure bridgeheads for “boots on ground” and intelligence operations; and the NA has to be kept at arms length from Kabul until a broad based government acceptable to Pakistan and the rest of the regional players has been cobbled and installed in the capital. What are the prospects of that happening soon? Pro-Taliban commentators say the Taliban will never surrender to the Americans. But might they not switch in sufficient numbers if the conditions were right? General Musharraf’s rather coy remark recently of impending switches and defections among the Taliban should not be ignored. Perhaps the hiatus in the war provided by Ramadan will be a cover for achieving this objective. Voices in the American establishment are already saying that Washington may have missed the import of the Taliban’s early statements suggesting that they would have no serious objections if the Americans could “take out” their honourable guest without direct reference to them. A couple of days ago some American soldiers and advisers were attached to contingents of the NA facing Mazhar i Sharif. This significant development suggests that further pressure will be brought to bear on the Taliban’s front lines by a targeted dose of carpet-bombing while propelling the NA’s ragtag army into effective military action. Equally critically, the presence of the Americans is meant to make sure that the NA’s troops do not commit atrocities after they capture the city. The same sort of pressure on the Taliban and restraint on the NA may be evident along the Kabul front in weeks to come. In fact, the Americans may be preparing the ground to hold the NA in check while readying a UN sponsored military force to occupy Kabul as soon as possible. Fortunately, civilian casualties in Afghanistan are still much less than originally anticipated. But these will surely mount as the war is extended. Islamic passions are bound to be further inflamed. That is why the Americans and Pakistanis must extract maximum mileage from the onset of Ramadan. The sooner the political essence and organisational structure of a new government in Kabul is agreed upon between the contending powers, a roadmap, as it were, the quicker the Taliban can be swept aside and the bombing brought to an end.